A few weeks ago, I wrote about my Baseball Stats R shiny application, where I demonstrated how to calculate runs expectancies based on the 24 possible bases/outs states for any plate appearance. In this article, I’ll explain how I expanded on that to calculate the probability of winning the game, based on the current score/inning/bases/outs state. While this is done on other websites, I have added some unique play attempt features — steal attempt, sacrifice bunt attempt, and tag from third attempt — to show the probability of winning with and without the attempt, as well as the expected win probability given a user determined success rate for the play. That way, a manager can not only know the expected runs based on a particular decision, but the actual probability of winning the game if the play is attempted.

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Por Editorial